Update #21: 2024 Monitoring report / October 4, 2024

At the last weekend of August 2024, we completed most of the survival rate monitoring for our planting areas in 2022 and 2023. The survival rate for the 2022 planting area is 78.48%, and for 2023 it is 56.40%. These results are less positive than last year’s, especially for the 2023 area. Still, these results reflect extremely hot and dry weather during 2024.

Updates

15th November 2024 - Update map and monitoring results for 2021, 2022-A, 2022-AdZM2 and 2023-B planting areas.

Thanks for your help Climate caravan, Mirlo & Joset!

Monitoring is not an easy task, especially when one needs to walk up and down over 16 hectares of steep hills and rocks. But this year, we had help! It took 5 people whole weekend to establish new monitoring points and count trees in all the areas. Especially establishing the monitoring points is quite demanding as one needs to prepare and transport all the materials to the monitoring points. It was a great weekend with an amazing company, good weather and great conversations!

Monitoring results

Below your can find results of the monitoring event for the 2022 and 2023 planting areas, which we executed last weekend of August 2024. We have established new monitoring points for the 2023 planting area, repaired the ones in the 2022 area, and done the counting. For detailed information about our monitoring methodology, please refer to the How are we monitoring? section on the Reforestation project page.

56.40% survival rate for 2023 area

Unfortunately, the survival rate for the 2023 planting is much lower than we would like, especially compared to the 84% for the 2022 area in its first year. The results are, however, not completely surprising given the incredibly hot and dry summer in 2024 and the terrain of the planting site.

The main problem for the trees planted last year was drought in 2024. Both big streams running through the planting area dried out in early summer, and there was little rain to replenish the water during the summer. This problem was compounded by the steep, rocky terrain, where it’s hard for water to saturate the soil, and the east-facing orientation, which means constant exposure to the sun.

Arid summer surfaced the second problem: competition of multiple saplings for water. Our planting material had multiple trees, between 3 and 5 saplings per bag. This is due to standard practice to sow multiple seeds per bag so that the nursery ensures each bag has at least 1 tree. Usually, this is not an issue; for example, the 2022 area used the same planting material. However, when water resources are limited, this quickly becomes a big problem, as we saw this year.

The monitoring points which have a good survival rate share the same elements:

1. They are all either in the shade of bigger trees or other vegetation;
2. They have enough topsoil with vegetation;
3. They have a single tree per hole.

With this information, we can see what changes would be beneficial for better results, and we are making changes for the 2024 planting season, see below.

78.48% survival rate for 2022 areas

This is the second year of monitoring for the 2022 areas, and the results are positive, with just a 6.17% decrease in the survival rate compared to the 2023 monitoring. The survival rate is also more evenly distributed across the planting area (in contrast to the 2023 area). Also, the results per monitoring point are similar/expected compared to the previous monitoring year.

The 2022 planting area generally has more favorable terrain with fewer rock formations, slopes, and a north/northeast orientation. This last point is important, considering sun exposure and water availability.

Survival rate for 2021 & 2022 AKZM/AdZM areas

We have previously monitored the 2021 area and other smaller areas by counting each individual tree. However, due to growing vegetation and to unify the monitoring methodology, we applied the sample plot method to these areas, this year.

88.25% survival rate for 2021 areas

As seen on the map above we established 4 monitoring sites in the lower part of the 2021 planting area. We still need to complete the upper part before the winter which will affect the results. The results for the 2021 are will be lower once we complete last 3 monitoring points.

The results for the lower part are very positive at 88.25% survival rate. However, we are aware that the upper part of the planting area does have much less survival rate. This is due to the fact that we planted certain portion of the are using 1 year old Black pine saplings, which were too young to survive harsh winter.

43.91% survival rate AKZM & AdZM Dibër 2022 area

The planting area with the trees provided by the AKZM and AdZM (0.37ha, 542 saplings) was executed on 8th November 2024 using the manual count method.

The lower results in this area can be attributed to the saplings. These Black pine saplings were 4 year old, grown in the nurseries in Lac and due to their very tall size the saplings are prone to physical damage during winters. 2025 will be end of 3 year monitoring period for this area at which point we will be taking a decision on the further approach in this area.

Lessons and “Is the 2023 planting area a failure?”

It is disappointing that the survival rate in last year’s area was 56%. It would be easy to say that it’s a result of climate change and that we can’t do much about it. That would not be fair. Sure, 2024 was incredibly hot and dry, but we think there are ways to improve our results.

For the 2024 planting season, there are important changes which will positively impact the resilience of the planted samplings:

1. We will be using 8,800 trees grown in our tree nursery. These trees are not only acclimatized to the local climatic conditions but, more importantly, grown individually and will be planted separately. Higher quality planting material will (we hope) improve their survival chances significantly.

2. We will introduce new measures to capture moisture around the tree, such as using vegetation or coarse mulch to minimize evaporation.

Trees for Lurë is not only a reforestation project; on the contrary, we have many activities in Lurë during the year, broadening our impact on the local community and the area. Therefore, results from one planting are disappointing, but the positive impact we had can’t be taken away by it.

We have contributed almost 50% of our budget to support local families in Lurë. We established tree nursery which provides additional job opportunities for local women, but more importantly, produced 8,000 Black pines for the 2024 planting season and another 10,000 is growing for 2025. We provide educational activities for schools and visitor groups and collect valuable weather and monitoring data.

We have contributed almost 50% of our budget to support local families in Lurë. We established a established tree nursery which provides additional job opportunities for local women. Still, more importantly, we produced 8,800 Black pines for the 2024 planting season, and another 10,000 are growing for 2025. We provide educational activities for schools and visitor groups and collect valuable weather and monitoring data.

All this is part of our project in Lurë, a much wider engagement than just reforestation.

On behalf of the whole team,
Pavel